Fall is upon us, with cooler temperatures and a little snow showing up in the mountains in early October. This is the time of year when our mindset begins making the transition from hiking, biking, boating, and fishing to thoughts of skiing, snowboarding, snow-machining, or heading south to a warmer climate.
Given the change in seasons, this would be a good time to take a gander at this winter’s weather outlook, to see what we might expect for precipitation and temperatures in the coming months.
NOAA’s Outlook
The long-range outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center for the northern half of Wyoming and for all of Montana during the main winter months, December 2025 through February 2026, shows precipitation is expected to be in the above normal category for that three-month period. (Maps from NOAA’s Seasonal Outlook page).
Looking at the next three-month outlook period, January 2026 through March 2026, the forecast is even more solidly in the above normal precipitation category for Wyoming, including Jackson Hole and eastern Idaho. That bodes well for us as far as our chances of a good snowfall winter.
Temperatures this winter for most of the northern and central Rockies, including Montana, Wyoming northern Utah and central Colorado shows no trend either way, warmer or colder. Temps are in the “Equal Chance” category. The Equal Chances category means that the odds are the same for having above normal, below normal, or normal temperatures this winter.
Click here for: How to Read the 3-Class Three Month Outlooks
Below is the forecast map for December-January-February. The map for January-February-March looks very similar.
For comparison, last year at around this same time, NOAA’s forecast was for “Equal Chances” for both precipitation and temperatures. Temperatures ended up above normal in December, February, and March in the Town of Jackson. While snowfall ended up above normal for those three months – and also for the whole winter – both in town and up in the mountains. January was the only month last winter with below normal temperatures and below normal snowfall.
ENSO Forecast
ENSO is acronym for the El Nino Southern Oscillation, which describes the state of sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Nino is one phase of ENSO. Simply put, an El Nino is when sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific are warmer than normal. A La Nina is when those temperatures are colder than normal. Both El Nino and La Nina have some effect on the weather patterns that develop across the Pacific Ocean, primarily during the Northern Hemisphere’s winter season.
The common thinking is that an El Nino winter favors a more southern storm track across the Pacific, bringing above normal precipitation to California and the Sierras, as well as the Southwestern United States. La Nina winters favor more precipitation and snow over the northern tier of the United States, including Western Wyoming.
The latest ENSO forecast from October 9th, 2025 said: “La Niña conditions are present and favored to persist through December 2025 – February 2026, with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely in January-March 2026 (55% chance).
Be careful how much faith you put into ENSO forecasts. A recent study done in California showed that El Nino’s only produced above normal snowfall about 35-percent of the time. Therefore, the hype about El Nino that we have heard for the last 30 years may be a bit overdone. Same with La Nina’s in the northern tier, some La Nina years were very beneficial snowfall-wise, others were not.
Farmer’s Almanac
Now let’s review what the Farmers Almanacs have to say. There are two of them to look at, the Old Farmer’s Almanac and the Farmers’ Almanac.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac prediction, which has been around since 1792, calls for “Mild and Wet” conditions this winter for Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, and Colorado. And, “Mild and Dry” conditions for western Washington and Oregon, and all of California. Saying, “wet”, in the winter forecast would translate to more precipitation than normal, and thus more snow for the mountains, I’ll assume. Saying, “mild”, I suppose means temperatures will be near or just above normal.
The Farmers’ Almanac, which began its weather prognostications in 1818, has the most succinct forecast for the Rockies. They are calling for, “Very Cold and Snowy” conditions this winter for all of Montana, Wyoming, and Colorado.
Bingo! That does it. It’s confirmed. All forecasts for this winter are leaning towards more precipitation, which must mean we’ll have more snow that average here in Jackson Hole, right?
Final Words
One last thing to consider, from a statistical perspective: In the last seven years there has only been one winter, the winter of 2021-22, that registered below average snowfall at the Jackson Hole Mountain Resort. Within the last seven years at JHMR, 5 of those winters ranked in the top-ten snowiest winters on record. Just three winters ago, in 2022-23, JHMR had their second snowiest winter ever. The question is, will this snowier than normal trend continue? Or, statistically speaking, are we due for a below average snowfall winter? The forecasts all say, “no”. Maybe it will be the next winter when the snowfall is leaner than normal.
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Post by Jim Woodmencey. Some of this text originally appeared in the Jackson Hole News and Guide, Mountain Weather column, on October 8th, 2025.
Jim is the chief meteorologist at mountainweather.com and has been forecasting the weather in Jackson Hole and the Teton Range for almost 35 years.