The first hints of fall weather have begun to arrive in the Rockies, and while the Autumnal Equinox is still a week away, I thought it was time to take a look at what might be in store for winter season, 2021-22. I live in Jackson Hole, WY where the zest for snow never seems to end, no matter what the season.
In this post, I’ll look at various outlooks for Winter 2021-22. I’ve included the Old Farmer’s Almanac and the Farmer’s Almanac predictions; both out in print this week. I’ll also break down the long-range outlook for this winter from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
Old Farmer’s Almanac
The Old Farmer’s Almanac for 2022 is the 230th edition of this iconic weather tool. For the first hundred years or so, this familiar yellow jacketed paperback book was essentially the only source for any kind of long-range weather outlooks. The almanac is also stuffed with all sorts of other interesting tidbits of information about the sun, the moon, planets, gardening, etc.
This coming year’s edition has predicted a Cold and Dry winter for the Jackson Hole area. That forecast is also valid for the entire Intermountain Region, including Idaho, Utah, Western Montana, Western Wyoming, and Western Colorado.Western Washington and Oregon, along with all of California, are forecast to have a Mild and Dry winter in 2022.
The Farmer’s Almanac
Not quite as old as the other almanac, the Farmer’s Almanac (the orange covered one) has been around since 1818 and for 200-plus years has been the only other competitor in that market for old-school type forecasts.
Their outlook this year, for our neck of the woods, is rather cryptic in its message. For all of Montana, Wyoming and Colorado the forecast is, and I quote, “Numb’s the Word, Just Shovelin’ Along”. I am sure that most skiers and snowboarders would interpret that to mean, “Cold and Snowy”.
NOAA and ENSO Outlook
The latest forecast made in mid-August and issued by the Climate Prediction Center looking ahead to the December through February time-frame, shows that in Western Wyoming we can expect “Equal Chances” of being above or below average for both precipitation and temperatures. That’s not exactly solid intel for picturing what kind of winter we’ll have.
If you wanted to hedge in one direction, I’d say hedge towards cooler and near or above normal snowfall. The reason I say that is, the Pacific Northwest is forecast to have below normal temps this winter and better than a 50-percent chance of above normal precipitation. Western Montana also falls under that category of above normal precipitation. Close enough to Jackson Hole for me!
One last thing to consider is the state of the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation). Right now, NOAA is saying we are under a “La Nina Watch”. Their most current forecast reads like this: “The central tropical Pacific Ocean is in a neutral climate state, but the odds of at least a weak La Niña emerging this fall have risen to 70-80 percent.”
That is generally good news to me, as the storm track favors the Northern tier of the U.S. in a La Niña, and Jackson Hole usually has better than average snowfall during La Nina winters. How strong that La Niña becomes is also critical, and that remains to be seen over the next several months.
It may not be time to start waxing those boards, but where I live, we have fared very well in recent years, despite the forecasts. Jackson Hole has experienced above average snowfall in the mountains seven out of the last 10 years, including above average seasonal snowfall in the mountains the last six winters in a row.
After 40 years here, I have also concluded that even a bad winter in Jackson Hole is better than a good winter anywhere else.
Post by meteorologist Jim Woodmencey
There has been much talk around Jackson Hole the past few weeks about the drought, the rising fire danger and how this summer is shaping up to be just like the Summer of 1988, when Yellowstone had 800,000 acres scorched by wildfires. Those fears have some validity, however, every summer’s fire season shapes up differently. It’s the weather we’ve had up to this point and the weather from here on out that will determine how bad a fire season we end up with.
Of course the Southwestern U..S. and California are already experiencing big wildfires, with extreme drought and record high temps in June and early July.
In this post, I’ll look at the set-up for a big fire season and look at the factors that contribute to large fire potential.
You can find updated Fire Weather and Drought info on the NWS Forecast Info page.
Satellite Image below shows smoke from Fires in Northern California streaming over Idaho & Western Wyoming.
The Spring of 1988, March, April and May combined, was wetter than this spring was, in both Yellowstone Park and in Jackson Hole. In Spring 1988, the three-month total precipitation in Jackson was 4.79 inches, which is above the norm of 4.17 inches. The Spring of 2021 was just below normal, at 3.84 inches, almost an inch less than the total in 1988.
June Precipitation in Jackson was similar to 1988, with only 0.33 inches of rain, an average June would see 1.63 inches . June of 1988 had 0.35 inches of rain. So, you could say, this June was drier than in 1988. Big difference is, June of 1988 was much warmer than this June of 2021
Suffice it to say, we are beginning this year’s fire season in a very similar fashion to 1988, it’s been plenty warm and dry. Going forward, two things will determine how bad this fire season will be, the weather and people.
Human vs. Lightning Caused Fire
Wildfires are part of the natural ecological cycle; they are essential for maintaining a healthy forest. Only about 20-percent of all wildfires are naturally caused, regrettably, the remaining 80-percent are human caused. So, we have identified the enemy, and it is us!
Improperly extinguished campfires, fireworks, powerlines, errant trash or brush burning are the leading causes of human wildfire starts. The Green Knoll Fire in 2001 and the Horsethief Fire in 2012 and examples of large wildfires that were started by humans.
In 1988, Grand Teton National Park only had two major fires, the Huck Fire, near the southern border with Yellowstone and the Hunter Fire, off the Antelope Flats Road near Shadow Mountain. Combined, these two fires burned about 125,000 acres. Neither of these were natural starts, it’s believed they were started by powerlines.
Lightning, of course, is Mother Nature’s matchstick. Many of the larger fires within Grand Teton National Park over the years were started by lightning, most notably, the Beaver Creek Fire near Taggart Lake in 1985, the Alder Fire in 1999 that nearly torched Jenny Lake Lodge, and the Berry Fire in 2016 that jumped the north end of Jackson Lake and made a run towards Flagg Ranch.
With all of these fires, the common denominator that made them grow so big and act so erratically, was the wind.
Wind is the Adversary
Hot and dry weather are not the only requirements for a big fire season. That certainly helps, but almost every big fire in the history books got big because it got windy.
Smoldering coals in a campfire ring or a lightning-struck tree can be brought back to life with a little wind. Continuous strong winds can then fan and spread flames in a rapid and efficient manner, creating a full-on firestorm. Wind is the bane of all firefighters.
Almost every tragic fire disaster involved a shift in wind direction or an increase in wind speed. Going back to the 1937 Blackwater Creek Fire, west of Cody, Wyoming where 15 firefighters lost their lives, the Mann Gulch Fire in Montana in 1949 that killed 12 smokejumpers, the Storm King Mountain Fire in Colorado in 1994 that took another 14 firefighter’s lives. More recently was the blaze Near Yarnell, Arizona on June 30, 2013, that claimed another 19 firefighters.
In a more urban setting, what started as an unextinguished grass fire in the hills near Oakland, California in 1991, quickly spread into brush and residential areas. That fire trapped and killed 25 people, among those was a good friend, Leigh Ortenburger, the original author of, The Climber’s Guide to the Teton Range.
All of these fatal fires were the result of rapidly changing winds.
July-August Fire Outlook
We should take this fire season seriously, maybe forego the usual campfires or be damn sure they are out! Be cognizant of anything that can throw a spark, like a chainsaw, the lawnmower or shooting guns for target practice. Do everything humanly possible to prevent forest fires and 80-percent of the problem will be solved.
For the other 20-percent, it all depends on the weather. In an ideal situation, if we have a very dry summer with no thunderstorms, then perhaps we’d have no natural fire starts. That’d be a long-shot bet.
According to the Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook map, Teton County, WY and much of the West & Rockies goes into the “above normal” potential category for this July and August. That means we’ll need to be very vigilant about the human causes of fire and get really lucky with the weather, to avoid any kind of repeat of the Summer of 1988.
Post by: meteorologist Jim Woodmencey
Some of thispost originally appeared in the Jackson Hole News & Guide