The real significance of Groundhog Day, on February 2nd every year, is that it marks the halfway point of the Winter Season. It is the midway point between the Winter Solstice (Dec. 21) and the Spring Equinox (Mar. 20).

Essentially, we have also reached the midway point of the ski season as well. The first half, December and January,  may not have played out exactly as we had wished for, especially for snowfall in the valley. Yet some folks seem ready to write off the whole season already, thinking that a poor first half means we’ll have a bad second half. While others have implied that we’re doomed to have winters just like this, into the future.

Take for instance the  headline on the front page of the February 4th, 2026 edition of the Jackson Hole News and Guide, proclaiming: “Snowpack portends climate future”. Certainly, an attention-grabbing headline that probably raised your snow-anxiety level another notch.

Within the article were some see-I-told-you-so statements from a pair of university professors, climate researchers apparently, who said, “This is all part of the trend”, and,  “Extreme winters like this will become more regular”. Or, “What used to be extreme, is definitely much more normal now”. Quotes like that really tripped my meteorological trigger.

I would contend that Jackson’s winters have always been up and down, and it’s also the extremes of weather that make our averages. As a matter of fact, looking back over the last 50 winters, for just the first half of the winter season (December & January), the two biggest extremes at the Jackson Hole Mountain Resort were in 1976-77, the least snowy, and in 1996-97, which still boasts the record for the snowiest. We haven’t seen any winters that extreme since.

In the latest 25 years, Since 2020, snowfall on the upper mountain has been pretty consistent in December & January. Lower mountain snowfall has fallen below average the last few winters, but that data can be a bit deceiving, as that weather station has been moved to different locations a few times over the last 30 years.

The only thing about this winter so far that could be considered extreme, is the snow depth at the base of the mountain at the end of January 2026, at only 8 inches, that is the shallowest we’ve seen in the last 50 years, on the 31st of January.

The graph below, shows how much snow depths have fluctuated on the upper mountain and at the base at JHMR over time on January 31st, for the last 50 years. That’s just for the first half of the ski season. You may recall the last two winters had slow starts to the first half, then it dumped in February and March.

To believe that the weather during one half of one winter season is proof a long-term trend is unscientific. So, don’t become a “panican” and sell your skis and winter clothes just yet. What we are looking at here is the weather, not climate.

Allow me to explain what caused the weather we had the last few months and then offer a better historical perspective on Jackson Hole’s snow history. Which will reveal similar or worse conditions here in the distant past.

Blocking pattern affected the first half of winter

So far this winter, across most of the Western United States, temperatures have been warmer than normal with below average snowfall amounts due to a persistent weather pattern that started back in November. A very strong Westerly jet stream across the Pacific has been splitting just off the West Coast as it encountered a very large and strong ridge of high pressure.

(You can also read about December’s weather here.)

That ridge created a huge block in the atmosphere, preventing colder storms in the Gulf of Alaska from reaching the West Coast. Like plopping a huge boulder in the middle of the river, causing the water to flow around it.

The shifting position of the ridge determined the kind of weather we got in Jackson. When the ridge axis was positioned just east of us, a Southerly flow aloft was drawing warmer air up from far southern latitudes and moisture from tropical origins. That produced higher than average freezing levels and rain at lower elevations in December and early January.

When the ridge axis was west of us, we’d get a cooler Northerly flow, and dry weather. When the ridge was positioned directly over us, we’d also get dry weather, with temperature inversions, cold in the valley and warmer in the mountains.

At the same time the West was stuck under this ridge, the Eastern United States was enduring an equally large trough of low pressure. That weather pattern produced record breaking cold and snow from the Midwest to the Atlantic Coast. Does that also portend that winters in the East will be like that more regularly? Perhaps we should pack up and move to Vermont next winter.

Snowpack in perspective

As mentioned, the snowpack at higher elevations in the Tetons did fine the first two months of winter this season. At the Rendezvous Bowl weather station, at around the 9,600-ft. elevation, the settled snow depth at the end of January 2026 was 73 inches. Just shy of the average for the last 50 years at that location of 77 inches, and well ahead of last season when it was only at 56 inches deep in the bowl on January 31st, 2025.

It’s the base of the mountain, at the around 6,500-ft. elevation, that was really lacking, with only an 8-inch snow depth on January 31st, 2026, the lowest on record for that date. Last year at the end of January 2025, it was at 24 inches. The historic average snow depth at the base of JHMR on January 31st is 30 inches. The lowest prior to that was in January 1977, with 15 inches on the ground.

The winter of 1976-77 was the worst (i.e. the most extreme) in the history of the JH Mountain Resort. On the upper mountain the snow depth at Rendezvous Bowl on January 31st, 1977, was only 24 inches, the lowest on record for that date.

According to friends who were here that winter, the area didn’t open until January 15th, and the lower mountain was unskiable. This was before they had any snow making. You had to ride the tram up, and the Thunder lift was operating, but you had to download from Tower-3 on the tram to get back to the base. The second half of winter was no better, and the mountain closed by March 15th, 1977.

If that was your first winter in Jackson, you’d be crying more than you are this year. If you hung out for the following winter, the mountain was having a historic first half of winter. By January 31st, 1978, the upper mountain and the base of the mountain saw what would become its second deepest snowpack on record. Second only to January 31st, 1997’s 133-inch snow depth.

( Valentine’s Day update: On February 14th, 2026 the snow depth at Rendezvous Bowl was at 84 inches. The historic average on that date is 85 inches. The Base snow  depth is now up to 15 inches of settled snow, still about half of average, but better than the lowest year, in 2018 the snow was only 10 inches deep at the base.)

Town Snow Depth

At the Town of Jackson Climate Station, the average settled snow depth on the ground during the whole month of January 2026 was 4.2 inches. That’s well short of the long-term average snow depth in January of 11.6 inches.

(Note: That number is calculated using only years when there were no more than 5 missing days of data in the month, to get a more accurate gauge of monthly average snow depth).

There were years that had less snow on the ground during the month of January. In 2018 the average snow depth in town for the month was 3.7 inches. In 1981 it was 2.4 inches. In 1949 it was 2 inches.

There were also plenty of years recently that had deeper average snow depths in January, including: 2023, 2022, 2020, 2019, 2017, and 2016.

Another way to look at it is by comparing the average snow depth on January 31st in town, in 2026 it was at 4 inches on the 31st.  There were three other years for which there are records that had less snow on the ground on that date: 2018 = 1 inch. 2003 = 1 inch. 1931 = 3 inches.

January 2025 Jackson had 9 inches on the ground. The historic average snow depth on January 31st is 14.5 inches.

Town Snowfall

Jackson also recorded 9.1 inches of total snowfall in January 2026, most of which fell in the first 8 days of the month. That total was about half of the long-term average snowfall in January of 18.5 inches. But, it was more than twice as much snow as we received last year, January 2025 only had 4.2 inches of total snowfall for the month.

Looking back at January snowfall totals in town for the five years previous to that, from 2020 to 2024, only one of those was below average. Here is the list: January 2020 had 35.6 inches. January 2021 had 24.1 inches. January 2022 had 15.1 inches. January 2023 had 19.8 inches. January 2024 had 21.9 inches. I guess I fail to see any trend towards extremes here.

Analyzing the available data for monthly snowfall in January, with years that had complete records, there were 18 other January’s in Jackson’s historical record that had less snow than January 2026, dating back to 1931, which only had 3 inches of snowfall in town. January 1962 only 2 inches of snowfall that January in town, and 1992 had the least, with just 1.6 inches of snowfall.

The extremes on the high end happened in the 1960’s, with 56 inches of snowfall in January 1969 and 48 inches in 1967.

Again, using the criteria of only using months with no more than 5 missing days. Which oddly has fewer missing years than the snow depth chart. I suppose some years the daily snowfall was measured, but snow depth was not recorded every day.

Town Water

The Town of Jackson received 1.14 inches of water in January 2026, not radically below the average for January of 1.43 inches. Again, that was better than last year, in January 2025 Jackson only had 0.36 inches of precipitation.

It may seem counter-intuitive, but between 2020 and 2024, when Jackson had those above average snowfalls in January, only 2020 had above average precipitation. That’s because when temperatures are colder, you can yield more inches of snow out of the same amount of water. Which kind of blows the theory that we’re seeing more rain down at low elevations in recent years. This December and early January was certainly the exception, rather than the rule.

Jackson’s total water mount for December 2025 and January 2026 was 4.72 inches. Historic average total precipitation those two months is 2.95 inches. Well above the average, so you can’t call it a dry winter, so far.

January Town Temps

The average high temperature in the Town of Jackson in January 2026 was 29.7 degrees, which is almost 3 degrees warmer than the long-term average of 27 degrees. The average low temperature in January 2026 was 8 degrees, or 4 degrees warmer than the long-term average low for January of 4 degrees.

Last year in January 2025, the average high was 22.6 degrees, or more than 4 degrees colder than normal. And the average low was minus 2.3 degrees, or more than 6 degrees colder than normal. One up, one down.

The mean temperature this January was 18.9 degrees, the average if the average high and low temperature for the month. The historic average mean temperature in January is 15.5 degrees. So overall Jackson was 3.4 degrees warmer than normal.

January 2025, was more than 5 degrees colder than normal, with a mean monthly temperature last January of 10.1 degrees. One colder January, followed by one warmer January. Do you see the trend?  ….Sorry, I’m being sarcastic.

Consistent records of average mean temperatures go back to around 1935, before that the record is more sporadic. The chart below shows Average Mean Temperatures in Jackson for the last 91 years.

In case you weren’t here to experience all of our fluctuations in temperature the last 90 years prior to this one, here are a few highlights:

— In the last 14 years, since January 2013, there have been 6 Januarys with above average mean temperatures and 8 January with below average mean temps in Jackson.

— The warmest, most extreme, January on record was in 1953, with a mean temperature of 30.2 degrees .

— The coldest, most extreme, January was 4 years prior to that, in 1949, with a mean monthly temperature that January of only 0.7 degrees!

January Summary & Comparison

Closing Thoughts

It’s funny to me how a couple of abnormal winter months are suddenly branded as the “new normal”. What about all those recent years with above normal snowfall,  were they not establishing the “new normal” too? What about the years that were warmer or colder than this January? And if we are expecting the weather to become more extreme, will it be more extreme that it was in previous decades, like in the 1930’s, 40’s, 50’s, 60’s, 70’s, 80’s or 90’s?

Our memories of the weather are pretty short. And I have to admit, in the last 15 years or so Jackson has been blessed with some pretty awesome winters, if you gauge winter by snowfall amounts and the quality of the powder skiing. Sub-par conditions seem to have become unacceptable, or at least unrecognizable, based on your mind’s limited data set.

I’ve been fortunate enough to have lived in Jackson for most of the last five decades, and each winter was somewhat different than the one before. Part of my job the last 35 years has been tracking and analyzing Jackson’s weather, and as you can see from these records, there has always been a lot of variability. I can also tell you, some of the biggest swings in the weather occur in the months of December and January. And that is because of the variability of the weather patterns that set up across the Pacific.

My point in all this analysis is that almost every winter in Jackson is different. One unusual winter, or part of a winter, doesn’t define a “new normal” or portend anything into the future. So, expect the ups and downs and the extremes of weather to continue, as they have in the past and certainly will into our climate future.

Post by meteorologist Jim Woodmencey, who has lived in Jackson for 44 years and has forecast and tracked the weather here for 35 years.

The weather we had in Jackson Hole in December 2025 can be summed up with the title of an old Clint Eastwood movie: “The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly”.

Warm temperatures and rain in December are not the norm for Jackson Hole. But unusual weather patterns cause unusual weather, and that is what we had this past month or so, since November, actually.

November 2025 had record warm temperatures and was exceptionally dry. December 2025 only surrendered the dry part, as it became exceptionally wet but remained warm, warmer than any December in recent memory. Nevertheless, this past December was neither the warmest nor the wettest December on record.

The Bad: Valley Temps

Data from the Jackson Climate Station on the north end of town has the longest, most consistent record of weather data in the valley, and it’s what I use for historical comparisons. To begin, the average high temperature in Jackson for the month of December is 29 degrees. December of 2025’s average high temperature for the month was 38.8 degrees, or about 10 degrees warmer than normal.

That fell short of the record for the warmest average high temperature in Jackson in December, by several tenths of a degree. December of 1933 still holds this record with an average maximum temperature of 39.3 degrees.

The long-term average low temperature for December in Jackson is 7 degrees. The average low this past December was 21.9 degrees, or about 15 degrees warmer than normal. You may be surprised to know, that wasn’t even close to the record for the warmest average minimum temperature for the month of December. In 1917 the average low temperature for December was 24.9 degrees.

Perhaps the best gauge of overall warmth, or cold, for a month is the monthly mean temperature, or the average of both the average high and average low temperatures. December 2025’s mean temperature was 30.3 degrees, or 12 degrees warmer than the long-term average mean temperature in December of 18 degrees. But December 2025 did not break the record for the warmest December in Jackson.

Using that metric of mean temperature, the warmest December ever recorded in Jackson was 108 years ago, back in 1917, with a monthly mean temperature of 31.1 degrees.

Cumulative Warm Days and Nights

There were also several days in December 2025 that had high temperatures in the 40’s in town, a total of 16 days. That also fell short of a record, which is still held by December 1933, with a total of 18 days of 40 degrees or warmer.

Unusually warm overnight low temperatures were also present this past December, with a total of 7 days in town with a temperature of 32 degrees or warmer. Not as bad as December of 1917, which had a total of 12 days at or above freezing for overnight lows.

The warmest day of the month was on December 11th, 2025, with a high of 51 degrees. That’s 10 degrees shy of the all-time warmest December temperature of 61 degrees, from December 12th, 1921. However, the low temperature on the morning of December 11th, 2025 was 42 degrees, breaking the old record of 39 degrees on that date, from 2004.

The Ugly: Rain-Snow-Rain

The precipitation this past December came in waves of snow, followed by rain, followed by more snow, which was again washed away by more rain. Making for ugly conditions on the roads and causing a brown Christmas in town, for the first time in 30 years. Not since 1995 had we experienced no snow on the ground in Jackson on Christmas Day.

Total precipitation in the Town of Jackson in December 2025 was 3.58 inches, more than double the average in December of 1.52 inches, but well shy of any records. The wettest December in Jackson was in 1964, with 5.95 inches of precipitation. Two other Decembers broke the 5-inch mark, in 1955 and 1996.

Total snowfall in town in December 2025 was 14.6 inches, compared to an average snowfall in December of 17 inches. Settled snow depths though went from 5 inches on the ground on December 7th, 2025, to no snow on the ground from December 10th to 18th. Then back up to 5 inches on December 19th, and back to zero by December 22nd through the 26th. That marked the first Brown Christmas the Town of Jackson had since 1995, 30 years ago.

December snowfall returned and made a late inning run with 5 inches of snow on the ground by New Year’s Eve. It was a wild “snowler-coaster” ride in the valley this December.

The Good: Mountain Snow

The best thing about December 2025’s weather was the abundance of snow in the mountains. It was truly a tale of two different Decembers, depending on your altitude.

The Rendezvous Bowl weather station at the Jackson Hole Mountain Resort, at around the 9,600-foot elevation, recorded 104 inches of snowfall in December 2025. That’s 127 percent of the average snowfall at that site in December of 82 inches. This December’s snowfall on the upper mountains lies in-between the least amount of December snowfall, 16 inches in 1986, and the most snowfall in December, 225 inches in 1996.

The settled snow depth in Rendezvous Bowl at the end of December 2025 stood at 71 inches, which is the deepest snowpack measured there on December 31st since 2016, when it was at 86 inches. The average snow depth there on December 31st is 58 inches. Last season, it was at 59 inches. The shallowest snow depth recorded at Rendezvous Bowl on December 31st was 16 inches in 1976. The deepest was in 1996, with 114 inches.

So, the good news about December 2025 is that the snowpack in the mountains was plenty fat. Now, if we can just get the weather pattern to change a little, to keep it all snow to the valley floor, we’d really be looking good into the New Year.

Jim is the chief meteorologist at mountainweather.com and has been forecasting the weather in Jackson Hole and the Teton Range for almost 35 years.

Jackson Hole just experienced one of its warmest and driest Novembers on record, with a persistent weather pattern throughout most of the month that left a Ridge of High pressure sitting over a good portion of the Western United States and the Northern Rockies. Few storm systems were able to penetrate this Ridge, the storms that did mainly swung southward from the Pacific, across the Southwestern U.S. and Northern Rockies.

The result for Jackson Hole was little snow and temperatures too warm to keep the snow-guns going to make much man-made snow. Not a good combination for a ski resort town. Fortunately, a good stream of moisture in a Northwesterly flow starting the first week of December helped get things back up closer to normal in the mountains, at least. Unfortunately, warmer temps again by the second week of December will negate the snow down low.

In this post I’ll review the temperature, snowfall, and precipitation numbers from this past November and compare them to the historic averages and records.

Record Warm Temperature

There are different metrics you can use to determine how warm or how cold a month was: 1) Average monthly high temperature, 2) Average monthly low temperature, 3) Mean monthly temperature, which is the average of the high and low for the month.

All data reported here comes from the official instruments at the Jackson Climate Station.

1) November 2025’s average high temperature for the month was 48.4 degrees Fahrenheit. That is 8 degrees warmer than the long-term average high in November of 40 degrees. The warmest day of the month was 64 degrees on November 3rd.

There have been five other Novembers with warmer average high temperatures than this past November’s 48.4 F: 1999 (51.6 F), 1954 (49.5 F), 1953 (48.5 F), 1949 (48.9 F), 1939 (50.8 F).

November 1999 had the warmest average high temperature on record (51.6 F). The coldest November on record was in 2022, just three years ago, with an average high for the month of 27.7 degrees.

2) November 2025’s average low temperature for the month was 22.9 degrees, or about 7 degrees warmer than the long-term average low in November of 16 degrees. The coldest day of the month was on November 25th, with a morning low temp of 5 degrees.

There were four other years when average low temperatures were as warm or warmer than this past November: 2017 (22.9 F), 2008 (23.8 F), and 1998 (24.8 F), 1926 (25.5 F).

That temp in 1926 qualified as the warmest average low temperature in the month of November. The coldest average low in November was in 1952, with an average low of 4 degrees for the month.

3) November 2025’s mean temperature was 35.6 F, which is about 8 degrees warmer than the long-term average, and qualifying as the warmest November mean temperature on record for the Town of Jackson. That broke the old record by a few tenths of a degree, from November 1953’s mean temp of 35.3 degrees. November 1949 is now in third place, with a monthly mean temperature in November of 35.2 degrees.

No other November with complete temperature records had as warm a combination of average high and low temperatures. What is even more amazing about breaking this warm temperature record is, just three years earlier in 2022 the coldest November mean temperature in Jackson was recorded. The mean temperature that November was 17.0 F, breaking the old record of 18.8 degrees from 1938, by nearly two degrees.

Low Snowfall & Precipitation

The Jackson Climate Station recorded 4 inches of snowfall for the month of November 2025. The historic average snowfall in November in town is 9 inches.

Four inches of snow in November might seem low because last November, in 2024, Jackson received almost 11 inches of snow. But the year before that, in November 2023, we only got 4.2 inches. And the year before that, in November 2022, we got 20.6 inches. But the year prior to that, in 2021, Jackson only had 1.3 inches of snowfall in November.

That is how up-and-down November snowfall can be from year to year. Looking back at the entire snowfall record for Jackson in November, for years with complete data, there were 14 other years with less snowfall in November than this one, going back to 1917. Two of those Novembers had absolutely no snow recorded in town in November: 1953, and 1939.

On the flip side, some of you may remember the snowiest November ever, that was in 1985 when 40 inches of snow fell in town that month.

Water content-wise, after well above average precipitation in October 2025, November 2025 ended up with a measly total of only 0.28 inches of precipitation in the Town of Jackson. The average precipitation in November is 1.30 inches.

This was not the driest November on record, but it was the driest we’ve seen here since 1976, when Jackson received only 0.10 inches that November. There were eight other years dating back to 1917 that were drier than this November: 1974, 1969, 1949, 1943, 1939, 1936, 1923, and 1917.

The driest November on record was in 1939, with no precipitation that entire month.

The wettest November on record was in 1988, with 4.24 inches of precipitation.

Post by meteorologist Jim Woodmencey